Arms control and strategic stability dialogues and agreements have been a critical stabilizing factor between Washington and Moscow since the 1960s. With the Russian suspension of the New START Treaty (NST) in February 2023, the future of US–Russian engagement on arms control entered uncharted territory. Given the near impossibility of negotiating a new treaty while the war in Ukraine continues, a future without strategic arms control between the US and Russia has become conceivable.
Despite significant challenges to direct official dialogue, both governments have expressed interest in exploring what they might discuss once conditions allow. This project sought to develop and test possible options and scenarios for future strategic arms control through research and substantive, facilitated dialogue activities between nongovernmental experts—in consultation with officials.
Between June and November 2023, the project organized three expert meetings (two online and one in person), bringing together twelve participants from the United States and Russia. These meetings helped refine six draft papers addressing key issues such as future US–Russia arms control frameworks, the relationship between conventional and nuclear risk reduction, and possible approaches to negotiations on intermediate-range missiles and non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. A report summarizing the November 2023 discussions, including reflections on the US Strategic Posture Commission report, was also released.
In 2024, the project organized three additional events—one US–Russia meeting under the Future of Arms Control framework and two dialogues focused on European security. Together, these convenings produced three meeting reports, five background papers on European Security, and five background papers on the Future of Arms Control. Since 2023, the initiative has hosted more than seven meetings and generated over seventeen background and position papers, along with three comprehensive reports, all regularly shared with key decision-makers in Washington DC, Moscow, and across Europe.
The CCDP’s experience and Geneva’s neutrality were central to the project’s success. In-house expertise came from Keith Krause, Director of the CCDP, and Amb. Fred Tanner, former advisor to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The project also drew on the technical expertise of Andrey Baklitskiy of UNIDIR. Participants included highly connected experts and current and former officials from key countries.
- Principal Investigator: Abdulla Ibrahim
- Collaborators: Fred Tanner, Keith Krause, and Andrey Baklitskiy (UNIDIR)
- Funding: Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF)
Continuation: Global Dynamics and European Security (GDES)
Building on the discussions and research of The Future of Arms Control Project—and extending them to address the broader post-war European security environment—the CCDP launched the Global Dynamics and European Security (GDES) Project.