Stress Tested is a policy-driven research initiative to develop a rigorous, forward-looking methodology for assessing and improving the resilience of critical mineral and material supply chains. As geopolitical competition and climate ambitions accelerate demand for energy transition technologies, governments need more than just awareness of dependencies; they need structured tools to evaluate and mitigate them.

This project pioneers a comprehensive supply chain vulnerability framework, encompassing every stage from raw material extraction to processing and refining. Drawing on systems modeling, risk analysis, and real-world trade data, the framework will identify critical chokepoints, single-source exposures, and capacity bottlenecks across strategic materials. The approach goes beyond static mapping: it stress-tests systems against geopolitical shocks, market volatility, and technological disruption.

The methodology is piloted with a national-level resilience assessment for the United States to provide a blueprint for how advanced economies can systematically evaluate exposure and design targeted de-risking strategies such as strategic stockpiles or market-making interventions. Key outputs will include replicable metrics, diagnostic tools, and policy guidance tailored for public agencies and private sector actors alike. By embedding economic realism into supply chain security strategies, Stress Tested offers a new foundation for long-term industrial resilience planning in an increasingly fractured global trade environment.

This project is developed in collaboration with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.