event
Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar
Tuesday
14
December
Josefin Meyer

Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years

Josefin Meyer, Postdoctoral Researcher at Kiel Institute for the World Economy
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Seminar streamed via Zoom

The Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar is the Economics department's weekly seminar, featuring external speakers in all areas of economics.

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As part of the Vilfredo Pareto Research Seminar series, the International Economics Department at the Graduate Institute is pleased to invite you to a public talk given by Josefin Meyer, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

She will present her work, joint with Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza and Lucie Stoppok, titled Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years.

Abstract: How do commodity price movements affect sovereign default risk over the long-run? Using a novel dataset covering 41 countries and 42 raw commodities, we take a comprehensive long-run view to shed light on this so far understudied relationship between commodity risk and sovereign risk across 150 years. We create a novel country-specific commodity price index that allows us to take advantage of countries' variation in their commodity export compositions. Our results are twofold:  first, commodity price fluctuations show a persistent association with sovereign borrowing costs for countries that are commodity export dependent across the last one and a half centuries. Second, historically this relationship was driven by agricultural price movements; today it is driven by mineral and energy price movements.

 

About the speaker

Josefin Meyer is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. She studied economics at the Hamburg University and Free University of Berlin and holds a PhD in Public Economics from the Ludwig-Maximilian University in Munich (LMU). She was a Research Fellow at the Department of Economics of Sciences Po and a Research Associate at the Department of Economics of LMU. Her research interests are international finance, sovereign deb, as well as financial and economic history.