Public Investment Quality and Sovereign Risk
This paper introduces a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over 2000–2021. It shows that scaling up public investment reduces sovereign risk in countries with high-quality public investment but increases sovereign risk when public investment quality is low. We find that this relationship is especially pronounced in sub-investment grade countries and that the results are not driven by the possible correlation between public investment quality and overall institutional quality. We also show that scaling up public investment when its quality is high does not undermine debt sustainability.