Using AIS data to assess sanction circumvention

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the EU and other countries have imposed a range of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions aim, among other objectives, to decrease Russia’s revenue from petroleum product sales. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the sanctions targeting Russian crude oil, and the significance of sanction circumvention through illicit shipping tactics, such as ship-to-ship transfers and transshipment via third countries. Utilizing satellite data on tanker movements, we infer bilateral oil shipments from Russia to the EU and compare them to official customs records during the time period Jan 2020 - March 2023. Our comparison reveals that a gap between these two measures emerged just when the EU's ban on seaborne crude oil imports was implemented. However, we do not find evidence that ship-to-ship transfers or transshipment were used to obscure the origin of the oil destined to the EU.