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PRESS RELEASE
18 June 2025

Hoffmann Centre Co-Director Co-Edits Landmark Volume on the Economic Consequences of a Second Trump Administration

Geneva, 18 June 2025 — A major new volume, The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, was released today by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), offering urgent expert analysis of the policy shifts unfolding under President Trump’s second term.

Geneva, 18 June 2025 — A major new volume, The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, was released today by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), offering urgent expert analysis of the policy shifts unfolding under President Trump’s second term.

The book is co-edited by Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Co-Director of the Hoffmann Centre for Global Sustainability and President of CEPR, alongside Gary Gensler (MIT and former SEC Chair), Simon Johnson (MIT and CEPR, Nobel laureate), and Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR).

With contributions from 40 leading economists, the volume provides a timely, evidence-based examination of how current U.S. policy trajectories — ranging from aggressive tariffs and deregulation to executive overreach and global fragmentation — may affect domestic and global economic outcomes.

This volume is a first response from the economics community — grounded in evidence, and intended to help policymakers and institutions prepare for a period of heightened uncertainty.
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
Co-Director of the Hoffmann Centre for Global Sustainability and President of CEPR
eBook-launch-18.06.25_0

The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment

Download the full volume

Key Findings:

Increased economic uncertainty and volatility
Lower long-term U.S. and global growth prospects
Risks to multilateral cooperation and rule-based order
Threats to the dollar’s international role

Table of Contents:

1. Introduction by the editors: The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: key assessments, Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza, Beatrice Weder di Mauro

Part I: Economic Transformation in the United States

2. Fiscal policy and debt sustainability, Antonio Fatás, Ugo Panizza

3. Presidential supremacy over administrative agencies, Gary Gensler, Lev Menand

4. The rule of law, John Coates

5. The economic effects of rapid federal downsizing, Josh Bivens

6. Immigration and border policies, Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri

7. The financial sector and global dollar system, Gary Gensler, Lev Menand, Joshua Younger

8. Consumer financial protection, Neale Mahoney

9. Competition policy, Jonathan B. Baker

10. Artificial intelligence development and policy landscape, Gary Gensler

11. Will the US continue to dominate science? David Baker, Simon Johnson

12. Health care, Jonathan Gruber

13. Downsizing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Valerie J. Karplus, Costa Samaras

14. Changes in federal climate policy, John E.T. Bistline

15. Rural economies and communities, Mary Hendrickson, David Peters

16. The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment, Michael R. Strain

Part II: Reshaping the International Economic System

17. The global public good, Barry Eichengreen

18. From MFN to “reciprocal tariffs”, Kevin O'Rourke

19. US middle-class malaise and the world trade system, Richard Baldwin

20. The aftermath of tariffs, Kimberly Clausing

21. First estimations of the effects of reciprocal tariffs, Antoine Bouet

22. Who pays for US tariffs? Marcelo Olarreaga, Sara Santander

23. Seven questions about tariffs, Arnaud Costinot, Andres Rodríguez-Clare

24. The Auto Industry Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard, Pauline Wibaux

Part III: Spillovers to Advanced Economies

25. Strategic autonomy for Europe requires economic growth, Luis Garicano

26. Trade wars and European monetary policy, Paul Bergin, Giancarlo Corsetti

27. Rethinking the governance and funding of European rearmament, Armin Steinbach, Guntram B. Wolff, Jeromin Zettelmeyer

28. Advanced technology as Europe’s strategic imperative, Tom Enders, Jeannette zu Fürstenberg, René Obermann, Moritz Schularick

29. The economics of the European defence buildup, Ethan Ilzetzki

30. Spending targets versus military capacity, Ralph Luetticke, Gernot Müller

31. Ukraine and Europe, Yuriy Gorodnichenko

32. Canada, Mark Manger

33. Greenland, Nick Bæk Heilmann, Mira Kleist, Bo Lidegaard

34. Japan, Kenichi Ueda

Part IV: Spillovers to Emerging and Developing Economies

35. Emerging markets, Robin Brooks

36. China, Yasheng Huang

37. India, Arvind Subramanian

38. Mexico, Alejandro Werner

39. Latin America: Tariffs and industrialization, Sebastian Edwards

40. The impact of US foreign aid cuts on global health Charles Kenny, Justin Sandefur

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