Yesterday at the Graduate Institute’s lakeside auditorium, four of the school's faculty members, specialists of the Middle East and North Africa, provided analyses of the last three months’ events in the region. The scholars agreed that the revolutions give reason for optimism but each country will take different paths and the international community intervention in Libya is a mistake.

The line-up of speakers at the roundtable included Riccardo Bocco, Professor and specialist of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Mohammad-Reza Djalili, retired Professor and Iran specialist, Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Visiting Faculty member and expert on terrorism as well as politics in the Middle East, and Jordi Tejel, Swiss National Science Foundation funded research professor at the Institute and specialist of Kurdish society and Middle Eastern history.

Opening the round table, Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou put the events into historical perspective saying that the current revolutions are unlike any others in the region in the past three centuries. They were also unexpected. “Any experts who say they predicted these events are lying”, he said.

Major catalysts for the revolutions were the absence of democracy, youth joblessness and institutionalised corruption, according to Dr Mohamedou. Other causes he attributed to the events were inter-elite competition and the fact that the leaders in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are aging and increasingly disconnected from the youth.

The poor economic state of these countries were also a major factor. “There has never been a revolution when the economy is going well”, he said.

Dr Mohamedou discussed the armies’ roles in ensuring stability in the medium term and said that for the time being the regimes have not fallen but reconfigured.

Professor Mohammad-Reza Djalili spoke next and observed that the revolutions have raised more questions than answers. “No one can guess what will happen in the months and years to come in North Africa and the Middle East”. Each country’s unique circumstances and histories mean that outcomes will be different.

Models from one country cannot be exported to another and the Iranian revolution has not been an inspiration to those responsible for the latest popular uprisings. “No one wants to go from one authoritarian system to one like the Islamic Republic of the Iran, which would be even more authoritarian”, he said.

Professor Djalili said that spring will take place in Iran but it will be more difficult than other countries because the government is extremely militarised and as it has a revolutionary background it is well-versed in counter-revolutionary techniques. He also noted that according to official figures 120 people have been sentenced to be publicly hanged between 1 January and the end of February this year.

He concluded saying Syria will be the epicentre of future revolts and the revolutions mean that Arab countries will play a bigger leadership role in the region.

Jordi Tejel’s presentation focused on aspects of Turkish politics and history that could be applicable to the other Muslim countries undergoing revolution. He provided an overview of the region beginning from the period between world wars I and II highlighting that Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey were unique because they emerged independent while other countries were placed under League of Nations mandates or were protectorates.

He said that he sees Turkey being less of a model and more of a source of inspiration for the other nations stressing that the major factor underpinning Turkey’s trajectory has been its institutionalised secularism. He noted that the army in Turkey played a key role by maintaining stability and ceding power to civilians.

“The Turkish revolution, which has never been completed, took 50 years but it was during the cold war; we are no longer held hostage by the cold war”. Democratisation in countries could now be quicker but each has its own road, Professor Tejel concluded.

Professor Bocco, who also moderated, closed the series of presentations. He said that the major significances of the revolutions were threefold: They are opening a new phase of democratisation and decolonisation. They are directed against internal problems, not former colonisers, and they constitute a revolution of the young against aging autocrats.

He discussed how the revolutions might affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process saying the revolutions could help get rid of the old guard of Palestinian leadership and make Hamas weaker since the uprisings are not Islamic in nature. He said the unfolding events represent the failure of armed struggle since the populations in Egypt and Tunisia succeeded in a peaceful manner.

Professor Bocco said that western governments made a big mistake by valuing stability and propping up authoritarian governments in the region rather than promoting democracy. The revolutions could bring on a redefinition of terms of engagement with Israel once it is no longer the only democracy in the region. “Israel risks not having any more enemies”, he said.

He speculated that the US and Israel do not want the government in Syria to fall.

“This is the first time in recent history when the Muslim world is regarded positively”, Professor Bocco concluded.

More information on the speakers is available on the event, “Historical revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa”, page.

Recent coverage by Institute faculty on related topics include the following:

Podcast by Riccardo Bocco: Arab Spring?
Presenation by Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou: New Terrorism
Book by Mohammad-Reza Djalili: L’Iran de A à Z
Book by Jordi Tejel: Syria's Kurds: History, Politics and Society