From left: Georgios Mermigas, Faizel Ismail, Zhu Haitao, David Shark, Manuel A.J. Teehankee, Donald Johnson

The Graduate Institute held a summer lecture yesterday entitled “WTO Negotiations: Concluding the Doha Round and Beyond”, where officials close to the Doha trade negotiations from the US, China, Greece, South Africa and the Philippines laid out what they think the fate of the ten year old and counting negotiations will be. The speakers agreed that the gaps between the developed and developing countries are too great to conclude a deal by the end of the year as had been pushed for by world leaders. Zhu Haitao, Second Secretary, Permanent Mission of China to the WTO, said he does not see a deal being concluded before 2015 due to factors including election cycles in the United States. David Shark, US Deputy Chief of Mission to the WTO, said US politics are not the reason the round is not finished but that is because of disagreements on substance.

Other speakers at the event included Faizel Ismail, Ambassador, South African Mission to the WTO, Manuel A.J. Teehankee, Former Ambassador and Chair of the WTO Committee on Trade and Environment Special Session at the Philippine Mission to the WTO as well as Georgios Mermigas, First Secretary for the Greek Permanent Mission in Geneva’s WTO Section. The panel was moderated by Graduate Institute Professor of International Law Joost Pauwelyn and Donald Johnson, Director of University of Georgia Law School’s Dean Rusk Center, former US Senator and Ambassador to the WTO.

The officials debated why the round has failed so far and what the future will hold for the World Trade Organization in case the Doha Round does not succeed.

Is Doha Dead or Alive?

“Members will not decide that Doha is dead at the WTO Ministerial Conference at the end of the year”, David Shark said. “But nobody should underestimate the difficulty of the remaining issues”.

What are the roadblocks?

“In the US there is a political hesitance to engage in Doha. There needs to be a new dynamic between the US and developing countries. I think there might be a slight chance to overcome differences in 2015 but I do not see much possibility before”, Zhu Haitao said.

“The question is whether we can bridge the gap between developed and developing countries and this issue goes beyond trade”, Georgios Mermigas said.

"It may not seem like that long away but the business and standards setting communities cannot wait for 2015", Rob Steele, Secretary-General of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), who was in the audience, said.

What are the possible scenarios?

“The black swan scenario in which there is a political miracle by the end of the year is the most unlikely”, Faizel Ismail said. “I see three possibilities: that negotiations stop and start from scratch with a new mandate; that negotiators conclude the issues that are doable soon and handle the remaining ones later; or that negotiations freeze and restart when conditions are better”.

Both David Shark and Zhu Haitao said their countries are in favour of concluding an intermediate downsized deal but that there is no consensus on what that would include yet.

Is there life for the WTO after Doha?

“The failure of Doha would be a failure for global governance. There must be an avenue for countries to move forward without the major nations blocking negotiations”, Manuel A.J. Teehankee said. “The role of the WTO as the dispute settlement forum of choice should be strengthened”.

This event was organised by the Graduate Institute’s Centre for Trade and Economic Integration as part of the new four day summer course entitled International Trade Law Practice under the WTO delivered by the Graduate Institute’s International Programmes in partnership with the Dean Rusk Center at the University of Georgia’s School of Law.

Stuart Harbinson, Senior Trade Policy Adviser, Sidley Austin LLP; Former senior adviser to the Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and to the Director General of the WTO gave a summer lecture entitled "Is Doha Doomed? What Next for the WTO?" on 6 July as part of the Institute's summer programme "WTO, International Trade and Development".

Media coverage of the event:
Even mini-Doha may be dead duck, say WTO members, Reuters, Thu Jul 21, 2011, Tom Miles