The Alaska summit between President Trump and President Putin on 15 August and the high-level meetings in Washington between Trump, President Zelenskyi and European leaders on 18 August, did not result in a sell-out of Ukraine’s interests, as feared by many in Ukraine and globally, but they did not bring major breakthroughs in the peace process either. 

The Alaska meeting set out the contours of an emerging agreement between the United States (US) and Russia that involved the rejection of a ceasefire and support for a comprehensive peace agreement, which represented a considerable change in the US position and a disalignment with European and Ukrainian positions. Russia’s key demand was the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war. At the same time, Russia agreed on the need to provide security guarantees for Ukraine without NATO membership, which represented a shift in its position.

Meanwhile, the meeting that followed in Washington took on an unprecedented format as European leaders accompanied Zelenskyi to demonstrate European unity and support. Together, they sustained Ukraine’s positions: security guarantees, a ceasefire before the beginning of discussions on a comprehensive peace agreement, the continuation of sanctions to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and opposition to the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donetsk region. At the same time, the meeting brought attention to the considerable, ongoing effort to realign the US, European, and Ukrainian positions in order to maintain commitment to the peace process.

Both high-level talks and exchanges took place against the backdrop of growing war fatigue and increasing support for negotiations in both Ukraine and Russia. Recent surveys also show a growing acceptance in Ukraine of territorial concessions as compromises for the achievement of peace. However, the level of support differs depending on whether this entails de jure or de facto recognition of the occupation and on the provision of security guarantees. The readiness for concessions is also linked to the expectation of mutual concessions and the need for a fair, uncoerced process, in order for any eventual agreement to be accepted by the population.

For the time being, territorial questions have been postponed, with a commitment to continue talks at the next meeting, which Switzerland has shown readiness to host. Ukraine proposes a presidential-level meeting to discuss territorial issues, while Russia demands that the work on the comprehensive peace agreement be completed before a meeting between presidents. Another key point of disagreement is the deployment of European forces in Ukraine, a common position of Ukraine and European leaders, which Russia has declared unacceptable. These disagreements could derail the fragile commitment to continue talks. For now, it is important that the US has refrained from applying outright pressure on Ukraine and has shown commitment to mediating the continuation of the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia. For the longer term, it is necessary to establish a framework for guiding negotiations and to broaden their inclusivity.

Banner image by Ted Eytan, "2022.02.26 Stand with Ukraine, The White House, Washington, DC USA"; Flickr.