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Critical minerals trade, climate, and net zero pathways: scenarios and implications for developing countries and climate-resilient development

Authors:
Simon LOBACH
Peter WOODERS
2025

This sectoral briefing note looks at the future implications of the climate crisis and energy transition for critical minerals, trade, and climate-resilient development and highlights some of the key implications for developing countries. It reviews existing critical mineral market projections in light of the likely impact of climate change and the energy transition on supply and demand. It also provides an overview of the specific nature of critical minerals and where they are produced. Based on these considerations, it highlights key trade and trade policy implications for developing countries and suggests options for trade policies and international cooperation to support climate-resilient development and value addition in critical minerals. This briefing note and the series will help contribute to a better understanding of emerging trade and trade policy trends and dynamics and their implications within the various sectors, thereby supporting developing countries in identifying and advancing their climate and trade-related interests and priorities in international discussions.