Granular Expectation Shocks and International Financial Contagion
Using a unique dataset linking investors’ cross-country GDP growth expectations to their investments into mutual funds and to the mutual funds’ cross-country allocation, we show that, while the flows into the funds are sensitive to the investors’ fund-specific aggregate expectations (computed using the fund’s portfolio shares), the funds’ allocation reacts less to the country-level expectations.
This gives rise to “co-ownership spillovers”, whereby negative expectations about a country in which a fund invests can adversely affect capital flows to the other countries that are part of the fund’s portfolio. Using a portfolio choice model with delegated investment, we show that these results arise naturally from a sticky portfolio friction. However, these spillovers matter in the aggregate only if the portfolio shares are granular.
Finally, using our data-based estimates and our model, we quantify the aggregate implications of these spillovers and find that co-ownership spillovers account for one fourth to one third of the comovement in expectation-driven capital flows.
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