event
Brown Bag Lunch
Saturday
17
November
Brown Bag Lunch

Regulatory uncertainty and voluntary bank capital surpluses

Aakriti Mathur, PhD candidate in International Economics
, -

Maison de la Paix, S1 Petal 2

The BBL is a weekly event organized by the International Economics where faculty members present their ongoing research.

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The median UK bank has held roughly 6% excess capital on top of their minimum requirement over the past 20 years. What explains this behaviour if bank capital is costly to hold? In this paper, we use a newly constructed dataset on UK banks between 1989-2013 to study the determinants of this surplus - measured as excess capital on top of a bank-specific minimum requirement - and hypothesise that regulatory uncertainty has a significant role to play. Applying a methodology similar to Bloom et al (2016) & Eckley (2015), we construct our own measures of regulatory uncertainty in the banking sector as a whole, and for capital regulations specifically. We show that there is co-movement between our measures and those commonly used in the literature, but they reflect different underlying information. Next, using both time series and panel evidence, we document a positive relationship between UK banks’ capital surpluses and regulatory uncertainty, reflecting a precautionary motive for a rational loss-averse bank. A standard deviation increase in regulatory uncertainty increases bank surpluses by 0.12 standard deviations, and squeezes the cross-sectional distribution of capital surplus inwards as banks closer to their requirements begin to gradually build up their surpluses.

The Brown Bag Lunch is a weekly event organized by International Economics where professors and doctoral students are invited to present their ongoing research. For more details please send an e-mail to Xiaojing Zhou at xiaojing.zhou@graduateinstitute.ch . All events take place on a Monday, from 12:15 - 13:45 at Maison de la Paix, S1.