How did you come to choose your research topic?

I’ve always been fascinated by global trade. During one of my first internships at the German Federal Economic Ministry, I was asked to assess how the Trump Administration’s steel tariffs affected German industry. That experience sparked my interest in trade policy and led me to write my master’s thesis on China’s Belt and Road Initiative and why countries choose to join it.

When I began my PhD at the Graduate Institute, I had the chance to join Professor Cédric Dupont on a large interdisciplinary project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation, exploring how trade agreements can be designed to better serve society — a chance I immediately took. From there, my own research naturally focused on the political economy of trade: how firms and governments shape the rules of the global economy. The theme of uncertainty emerged almost inevitably, given the turbulent times we’re living through.

Can you describe each of your PhD essays?

My PhD is made up of three essays that all explore how uncertainty shapes the way firms and governments behave in global trade.

The first essay, “Protection for Innovation: Firm Preferences on Non-Tariff Measures”, looks at how firms react to uncertainty in global markets, specifically, how it shapes their views on trade-related regulations. We know a lot about why firms lobby on tariffs or free trade agreements, but much less about their attitudes toward non-tariff measures such as product standards or safety rules. Using large-language models and advanced statistical analysis, I analyse thousands of firm statements to see which kinds of firms support these regulations. The findings show that innovative firms, those investing heavily in research and development, are often more supportive of strict regulations, especially when competition threatens their innovation advantages.

The second essay, “Signing, Flanking, or Renegotiating Trade Agreements? How the European Commission Navigates Ratification Uncertainty”, co-authored with Cédric Dupont and Noémie Laurens, shifts the focus from firms to policymakers, asking how the European Commission deals with “ratification uncertainty”, meaning the political and geopolitical hurdles that can appear after a trade agreement has been negotiated but before it is signed. By comparing three major EU trade deals — with Japan, Canada, and Mercosur — we identify three ways the Commission reacts: it may (1) move ahead quickly when uncertainty is low, (2) attach flanking measures to calm concerns, or even (3) go back to the negotiating table when uncertainty is very high.

The final essay, “Tightening or Loosening? The Effects of Uncertainty on the Design of Preferential Trade Agreements”, examines how uncertainty affects the design of trade agreements themselves. Conventional wisdom says that when uncertainty rises, countries look for more flexibility and prefer looser commitments. With my co-author Leopoldo Biffi, we find the opposite: uncertainty can actually drive countries to sign deeper, more comprehensive trade deals that include rules on investment, intellectual property, and regulatory cooperation. Based on the analysis of over 250 bilateral trade negotiations, the findings suggest that countries facing major uncertainty spikes tend to seek stronger agreements to create stability and predictability.

What could be the policy implications of your findings?

For decades, global trade was governed by a relatively stable set of rules and institutions, but that system is now being reshaped. As the old order fades and a new one has yet to emerge, uncertainty has become a defining feature of global trade.

My research shows that both firms and governments respond to such uncertainty by seeking ways to restore stability and predictability. This has important policy implications: strong rules, clear regulations, and reliable international commitments are not obstacles to economic cooperation, they are what make global markets work. In short, if we want open markets to endure, we need to embed them in broader systems that provide trust, accountability, and social legitimacy.

What are you doing now or going to do?

I’m currently a Research Associate at the Graduate Institute’s Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, where I continue my work on the political economy of global trade and market regulations. Early next year, I’ll join the University of Oxford as an SNSF Postdoc.Mobility Fellow to further explore how the rules of the global economy are designed — and whose interests they serve.

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On 26 August 2025, Christian Winkler defended with summa cum laude and félicitations du jury his PhD thesis in International Relations/Political Science. Professor Joost Pauwelyn (right) presided over the committee, which included (from left to right) Associate Professor Julia Cajal Grossi, Thesis Co-Supervisor; Associate Professor Sung Min Rho, Internal Member; Professor Cédric Dupont, Thesis Co-Supervisor; and Professor Layna Mosley, Department of Politics, Princeton University, USA.

Citation of the PhD thesis: 
Winkler, Christian Dominic Florian. “Navigating Uncertainty: Three Essays on Actor Preferences in Global Trade.” PhD thesis, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, 2025.
Access:
Members of the Geneva Graduate Institute can access the thesis via this page of the repository. Others can contact Dr Winkler.

Banner image by GreenOak/Shutterstock.
Interview by Nathalie Tanner, Research Office.