On Monday 28 October the Graduate Institute held the 9th Annual Reception in Bern for its alumni, the diplomatic community and others based in the Swiss capital.

This year’s event, “Africa: Resource-Led Growth, War and Conflict”, welcomed Professor Gilles Carbonnier and Assistant Professor Emily Meierding, both experts on natural resources and conflict in developing countries. Their speeches painted a cautiously optimistic outlook for Africa.

Emily Meierding’s presentation concentrated on the potential for international conflict in Africa over oil and gas exploration. Based on her extensive research on the subject, she concluded that international conflicts over oil in Africa will continue to be unlikely.

“Oil and gas resources, on their own, are not a sufficient incentive for violent international conflict,” she said. She cited several African countries, which show that oil is easier to exploit when it is clear which territory it belongs to and no conflict.

Even between nations that have a history of tension and unsettled borders, African countries are increasingly seeking to solve their problems by diplomatic and non-violent means, said Meierding wrapping up.

Professor Carbonnier highlighted Africa’s recent economic performance sustained by high commodity prices. After a decade of sustained growth, nearly half of the continent’s countries are middle-income economies, and over a third of the population classifies as “middle class”.

Africa faces a number of challenges, however, Professor Carbonnier pointed out. Its population is set to double to 2 billion in 2050, up from 1 billion in 2009. Since the extractive sector is not labour intensive (except for artisanal mining), economic diversification is of the essence to generate job opportunities. In addition, commodity prices are ever more volatile and could fall in the short run.

“This, together with rentier-states and violent rent-seeking syndroms, are arguably the greatest developmental challenge for Africa,” Carbonnier said.

In closing Professor Carbonnier outlined a way forward for the continent. “Africa may integrate itself in global value chains, benefitting from higher labour costs in China, and become one of the world major production powerhouses”.

The question and answer session yielded a rich discussion. The role of the private sector was particularly discussed. Emily Meierding said that oil companies have in fact helped countries settle their territorial disputes.

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