Since the start of 2025, a cascade of developments has shaken the foundations of the international system. A global trade war has erupted, international organisations are facing dramatic funding cuts, long-standing commitments to sustainability and diversity are being called into question, and the United States political system is undergoing radical transformation. At the same time, the multilateral norm of a rules-based international order — and the principle of inviolable sovereign borders — is coming under mounting strain. Many more trends could be added to this list. In what follows, I will briefly reflect on what a few of these developments could mean for the long-term prospects of global peace.
Let us start with trade wars. Scientific research is clear-cut on the link between trade and peace. Conceptually, more interdependence makes it costlier to engage in armed fighting, and this higher opportunity cost of violence should translate into less armed conflict. This conjecture is supported by the data. Thus, trade wars do indeed fuel the risk of actual wars.
Similarly, the sharp decline in funding for international organisations does not bode well for peace. A growing body of statistical evidence shows that key functions of these institutions play a direct role in reducing violence. For instance, empirical studies have demonstrated the conflict-reducing effects of international programmes to combat AIDS, the deployment of UN peacekeeping forces, and transparency initiatives in the mining sector.
The resurgence of dirty energy paints a similarly troubling picture. A wide range of empirical studies have shown that the extraction of fossil fuels significantly raises the risk of civil wars, interstate conflicts, civilian massacres, corruption, and authoritarian rule. Simply put, dirty energy fuels dirty politics. In contrast, investing in environmental sustainability offers a double dividend: it not only protects the planet but also promotes peace.
Finally, the growing assault on multilateralism and the rules-based international order is particularly alarming. The well-established “Democratic Peace” finding shows that democracies rarely, if ever, go to war with one another — highlighting the vital role of democratic principles in preserving peace. Replacing a system rooted in shared norms with one governed by the “law of the strongest” is likely to trigger a surge in interstate conflict. It is no coincidence that the post-1946 era — marked by strong multilateral institutions and respect for international rules — has seen far fewer international wars than other periods in history.
While the outlook above may seem grim, none of this is inevitable. It is in our hands to support democratic, constructive policies over divisive ones, to champion the transition to cleaner, greener energy, and to reinforce international organisations and multilateral norms that protect smaller and more vulnerable nations. It is precisely in moments like these that we must rise to the challenge — and seize the opportunity to make a lasting, positive difference.
This article was published in Globe #35, the Graduate Institute Review.
