Anyone visiting Syria today, as I recently have, encounters very mixed signals. The first impression is one of hope. Syrians are reclaiming their national symbols and flags, welcoming former prisoners, and participating in renewed public discussions and forums. Yet, Syria also suffers from an acute lack of financial resources, the government struggles even to pay its employees, widespread poverty persists, and the task of reconstruction appears daunting. Moreover, the recent violence against Alawi civilians — atrocities that the international community had long feared and that the government initially sought to prevent — serves as a painful reminder of how much worse the situation can become.
A key issue for Syria’s future trajectory is the prospects for reintegration into the international community. The Assad regime became an international pariah after responding with severe violence to popular demonstrations, which resulted in a violent insurgency partially supported by foreign countries. The regime became heavily reliant on Iran and Russia and, although there were modest efforts toward normalisation with countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the regime’s rehabilitation was nowhere in sight before 2024.
The new government in Damascus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has actively reached out to foreign countries during its first three months in power. Numerous meetings held both in Damascus and internationally with foreign heads of states and ministers confirm Syria’s return to the international stage. However, most foreign governments have not yet officially recognised or endorsed the new administration.
The new government faces the significant challenge of managing its foreign relations through a delicate balancing act. It needs Western countries, especially the United States, to lift sanctions both on Syria as a state and specifically on HTS and its leadership. This is essential for Syria’s reintegration into the global community, revitalisation of its economy, and reconstruction efforts. Gulf states offer some degree of political goodwill due to their desire for regional stability, but significant financial assistance is contingent upon the lifting of sanctions and the government’s ability to stabilise the country. Additionally, Russia plays a crucial role, given its vested interests, permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and considerable means to destabilise Syria if needed. Ultimately, the government must also skilfully balance its international relations to avoid excessive dependence on any single foreign partner.
For the moment, progress remains limited, even though there is no time to waste. A primary obstacle is the United States, whose unclear policy stance significantly impacts the lifting of sanctions due to its centrality in international finance. The US lacks direction, faces constraints in terms of available personnel, and prioritises numerous other international concerns. Additionally, many within the US leadership remain heavily focused on counterterrorism efforts, continuing to express reservations about HTS as a listed organisation.
This article was published in Globe #35, the Graduate Institute Review.
