The 2026 US midterm elections will determine which party controls Congress, but their significance extends well beyond the balance of power in Washington. Against a backdrop of political polarisation, declining trust in institutions and growing dissatisfaction with traditional party politics, the elections raise fundamental questions about the state of American democracy. What will drive voters to the polls? Can either party mobilise support beyond opposition to its political adversaries? And will the results, whatever they may be, be accepted as legitimate?
These questions were at the centre of a live Youtube webinar organised as part of Democracy Week 2026 by the Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy. Moderated by Christiana Parreira, Assistant Professor of International Relations and Political Science and Faculty Affiliate at AHCD, the discussion brought together Paul Katz, writer, social entrepreneur and author of Commit Together: A Practical Field Guide to Reclaiming Democracy; Jussi Hanhimäki, Professor of International History and Politics; and Rina Shah, political advisor affiliated with the Renew Democracy Initiative.
The panellists considered the midterms as both a referendum on President Donald Trump's second administration and a reflection of deeper changes in American political life. While economic concerns, particularly affordability and the cost of living, are likely to shape voters' decisions, shifting electoral coalitions and growing dissatisfaction with the two major parties complicate conventional predictions. The discussion also highlighted the importance of local political dynamics, often overlooked in international coverage focused on national personalities and partisan divisions.
Beyond the electoral outcome itself, the panellists examined the resilience of American democratic institutions. Partisan redistricting, declining trust in political processes and the willingness of losing candidates to accept election results raised questions about the rules and norms underpinning democratic competition. While assessments of the strength of institutional safeguards differed, the discussion underscored the significance of these challenges for the future of US democracy.
For an international audience, the webinar also invited reflection on which developments are specific to the United States and which reflect broader pressures facing democracies worldwide, from the erosion of traditional party loyalties to the fragmentation of political information and growing disputes over democratic legitimacy.