Although global economic output is recovering from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, it will remain below pre-pandemic trends for a prolonged period. Until the pandemic is brought under control around the world, the recovery will be subdued and may get derailed by several risks. In particular, the pandemic has exacerbated the risks associated with a decade-long wave of global debt accumulation. It is also likely to steepen the long-expected slowdown in potential growth over the next decade unless a major policy push for growth is made in many countries.
The January 2021 issue of the World Bank's biannual Global Economic Prospects report focusses on the global economy's recovery from the pandemic. The report entitled Subdued Global Economic Recovery describes how the economy will likely remain below pre-pandemic levels for a prolonged period of time.
Besides global and regional outlooks, the report highlights three topical issues: how the pandemic might trigger a "decade of disappointments", why some central banks have used asset purchase programmes to respond to the crisis, and how the pandemic has made debt accumulation more dangerous.
On 28 January 2021, the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the World Bank and the Centre for Finance and Development (CFD) at the Graduate Institute co-host a presentation of this latest report. The report will be presented and discussed by the World Bank's Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge, Jeremy Lawson (Aberdeen Standard Investments Research Institute), and Graduate Institute professor Nathan Sussman. Professor Ugo Panizza will moderate the discussion.
In the past, the Centre for Finance and Development, CEPR and the World Bank have co-hosted several presentations of the World Bank's Global Economic Prospect reports. In June 2020, the Global Economic Prospects report Pandemic and Crisis, focusing on the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, was presented.
Presentation by Professor Nathan Sussman (PDF, 1.28 MB)