The current account (CA) balance indicates a country’s savings-investment position; sus-tained deficits require foreign capital. To monitor Colombia’s external vulnerability risk, we estimate a normative CA level using an unbalanced panel model based on long-run funda-mental structural variables. The difference between the observed CA and this normative level, termed the CA gap, signals potential macroeconomic imbalances and vulnerability, of-ten precipitating sharp adjustments. Our results emphasize Colombia’s oil balance as key to explaining this gap. We identify heightened vulnerability periods: 2010–2016 and 2021–2022. Recently (2023-2024), the gap narrowed due to monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, re-silient service exports, and rising remittances. Finally, we show this framework can generate quarterly, real-time CA gap nowcasts for timely policy signals.