Beyond the dire medical consequences of COVID-19, 2020 is likely to see a trade collapse that is as large as the 2008-2009 collapse, since the ‘COVID concussion’ is both a demand shock and a supply shock while the 2008-09 collapse was driven mostly by a demand shock. Moreover protectionism is on this rise. Just when an open trading system is needed more than ever to help nations cope with COVID-linked supply-disruptions, the system’s functioning is threatened by short-sighted thinking. In both advanced and emerging economies, trade and investment restrictions are springing up around the globe on medical equipment, food, and essential inputs – more on the export than import side. Much of the policy has been set without a clear understanding of how manufacturing and agriculture production is actually organised in the 21st century. A tit-for-tat dynamic has only just started but threatens to spin out of control – as it did the late 1920s and 1930s.
Are we at the edge of a new global trade collapse? What might be the consequences on trade of the pandemic? and what can be done to mitigate these risks?
Join us on a CTEI webinar where these questions and more will be discussed by :
- Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics and Co-Director of the Centre of Trade and Economic Integration, the Graduate Institute
- Robert Koopman, Chief Economist and Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division at the World Trade Organization
- Anabel Gonzalez, Nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Simon Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St. Gallen
This conference has been organized thanks to the kind sponsorship of Mr. Sergei Popov.