COVID19 Recession

The Great Trade Collapse (?)

Richard Baldwin, Robert Koopman, Anabel Gonzalez, Simon Evenett
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WEBINAR: https://zoom.us/j/98862134085

Are we at the edge of a new global trade collapse? What might be the consequences on trade of the pandemic?

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    WEBINAR: zoom.us/j/98862134085

    Beyond the dire medical consequences of COVID-19, 2020 is likely to see a trade collapse that is as large as the 2008-2009 collapse,  since the ‘COVID concussion’ is both a demand shock and a supply shock while the 2008-09 collapse was driven mostly by a demand shock. Moreover protectionism is on this rise. Just when an open trading system is needed more than ever to help nations cope with COVID-linked supply-disruptions, the system’s functioning is threatened by short-sighted thinking. In both advanced and emerging economies, trade and investment restrictions are springing up around the globe on medical equipment, food, and essential inputs – more on the export than import side.  Much of the policy has been set without a clear understanding of how manufacturing and agriculture production is actually organised in the 21st century.  A tit-for-tat dynamic has only just started but threatens to spin out of control – as it did the late 1920s and 1930s. 

    Are we at the edge of a new global trade collapse? What might be the consequences on trade of the pandemic? and what can be done to mitigate these risks?

    Join us on a CTEI webinar where these questions and more will be discussed by :

    • Richard Baldwin, Professor of International Economics and Co-Director of the Centre of Trade and Economic Integration, the Graduate Institute
    • Robert Koopman,  Chief Economist and Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division at the World Trade Organization
    • Anabel Gonzalez, Nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
    • Simon Evenett,   Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St. Gallen





    This conference has been organized thanks to the kind sponsorship of Mr. Sergei Popov.