GTDW Seminar Series
Paola Concini

Trade Protection Along Supply Chains

Paola Conconi, Professor of Economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles
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Webinar streamed via Zoom

The Geneva Trade and Development Workshop (GTDW) is a joint seminar series of the Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM), the Graduate Institute in Geneva (IHEID), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). After twelve years of running as an on-site seminar, we are joining forces with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) to bring the GTDW online to share frontier research in trade and development.

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As part of the Geneva Trade and Development Workshop (GTDW) seminar series, the Graduate Institute in Geneva (IHEID) and our partners are pleased to invite you to a public talk given by Paola Conconi, Professor of Economics at the Université Libre de Bruxelles.

She will present her paper Trade Protection Along Supply Chains, coauthored with Chad Bown, Aksel Erbahar and Lorenzo Trimarchi.

Abstract: During the last decades, the United States has applied increasingly high trade protection against China. We combine detailed information on US antidumping (AD) duties — the most widely used trade barrier — with US input-output data to study the effects of trade protection along supply chains. To deal with endogeneity concerns, we propose a new instrument for AD protection, which combines exogenous variation in the political importance of industries with their historical experience in AD proceedings. We find that tariffs have large negative effects on downstream industries, decreasing employment, wages, sales, and investment. Our baseline estimates for 1988-2016 indicate that, due to AD protection against China, around 1.8 million US jobs were lost in downstream industries, with no significant job gains in protected sectors. When we extend the analysis to measures introduced under President Trump, we find that around 500,000 jobs were lost during the first two years of his term. We also provide evidence of the mechanisms behind the negative effects of protection along supply chains: AD duties decrease imports and raise production costs for downstream industries.


About the speaker

Paola Concini is a member of the European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES) and Research Associate of the Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS). She obtained a B.A. in Political Science from the University of Bologna, a M.A. in International Relations from the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University, a M.Sc. and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Warwick. Professor Conconi is a Research Fellow of the CEPR International Trade and Regional Economics Program, a CESifo Research Fellow, and the Director of the CEPR Research Network on Global Value Chains, Trade and Development. Her main research interests are in international trade, firm organization, and political economy.